this is my blog var gaJsHost = (("https:" == document.location.protocol) ? "https://ssl." : "http://www."); document.write(unescape("%3Cscript src='" + gaJsHost + "google-analytics.com/ga.js' type='text/javascript'%3E%3C/script%3E")); try { var pageTracker = _gat._getTracker("UA-4227109-4"); pageTracker._trackPageview(); } catch(err) {}Tumblr (3.0; @nsbarr)http://nsbarr.com/<img src="http://30.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_l83ptmQ7Kr1qze2tro1_500.jpg"/><br/><br/><p>I love Angry Birds. While not exactly proof, it’s worth noting that I had a live-action Angry Birds dream in which sparrows rained down from the sky and littered the ground, their lifeless eyes squeezed shut. This before the announcement about the movie rights.</p> <p>Anyway AB recently unlocked another board, seemingly its penultimate update, and I am pumped. I’m also starting to worry about how the game is going to end. For the first time I can sympathize with Sopranos fans who fretted about the series finale. To paraphrase Marlowe, I am concerned as to the way it will go out.</p> <p>Because quietly, underneath the more or less mindless gameplay, there is a plot here. It started simply enough: pigs stole eggs, pigs are bad, kill pigs, get eggs.</p> <p>But it’s gotten more nuanced. After the level 3 cinematic, the birds recovered the eggs. There had been losses on both sides, but the birds clearly were superior and had taken the battle to the pigs’ homeland. Not only the soldier pigs but tiny defenseless pigs, presumably children, had been lost in the battle.</p> <p>Why then, is there a level 4? Why does the bloodshed continue, and why is the reciprocity harsher than ever? The way this super bird destroys everything in its path makes the game feel like a massacre.</p> <p>At this point a diplomatic resolution seems hopeless. But I hope that when the carnage ends and those angry birds get their eggs back, they look at their bloody wings and stretch their bloody talons and ask themselves, “What have we done? 1,000 dead pigs for 3 eggs? God, what have we done?” Then, hopefully, the cinematic does one of those top-down zoom outs on one bird’s sky-gazing, grief-stricken face and keeps zooming out to take in the whole gory landscape, city ruins and pig guts everywhere.</p> <p>After all this killing, Angry Birds has a responsibility to remind us that war is not merely an addictive time-killer — it is also hell.</p>http://nsbarr.com/post/1051456693http://nsbarr.com/post/1051456693Wed, 01 Sep 2010 21:00:14 -0700angry birdswarmobile<img src="http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_l80xqlNDAU1qze2tro1_500.jpg"/><br/><br/><p>What does your mom send you in the mail?</p> <p>Care packages? Clothes for the new season?</p> <p>How about a newspaper clipping, aggressively circled and arrowed, using the word “dubious” in a way that, during an otherwise pleasant family vacation, had been the subject of some debate?</p>http://nsbarr.com/post/1042872340http://nsbarr.com/post/1042872340Tue, 31 Aug 2010 08:58:29 -0700allthismeansismymomandtheNYTarewrong<img src="http://29.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_l7xzxjP4nQ1qze2tro1_500.jpg"/><br/><br/><p>(via text)</p> <p>Scientist 1: Let’s clone our fav soccer player!</p> <p>Scientist 2: I duno, could get 2 messi.</p>http://nsbarr.com/post/1034244214http://nsbarr.com/post/1034244214Sun, 29 Aug 2010 18:53:04 -0700<img src="http://28.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_l7j3yxLjPB1qze2tro1_500.jpg"/><br/><br/><p><strong>Mom</strong>: I wonder if there’ll be mimes here.</p> <p><strong>Dad</strong>: Mimes? Why would you say that?</p> <p><strong>Mom</strong>: I don’t know, just seems like a possible mime opp.</p>http://nsbarr.com/post/989984986http://nsbarr.com/post/989984986Sat, 21 Aug 2010 17:56:56 -0700sea ranch<img src="http://29.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_l7dnk8Xtp71qze2tro1_500.jpg"/><br/><br/><p>The perfect checklist would have a box for “Get your visa photos!”</p> <p>It would already be checked with a big blue check, because this is a booklet for your visa photos.</p> <p>You would then feel more encouraged to finish off the rest of the items on the list, because you’ve made great progress so far.</p> <p>To make room for it, an item that only speaks to a tiny minority of people (eg., proof of rabies vaccination for dogs traveling with you) would be excised from the list.</p> <p>I’m smirking in my photo because in about 40 days I will be taking a three week vacation to visit Seoul, Shanghai, Goa (for a wedding) and Tokyo.</p>http://nsbarr.com/post/974949031http://nsbarr.com/post/974949031Wed, 18 Aug 2010 19:13:00 -0700gpoyw<img src="http://27.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_l74hj0fMpa1qze2tro1_500.jpg"/><br/><br/><p>Meteor showers aren’t like fireworks at all. A meteor shower proceeds according to its own cosmic timing; it has no interest in impressive beginnings or grand finales.</p> <p>Really all that meteor showers have in common with fireworks is that they usually feature large groups of people gazing upward at darkness sporadically made interesting by visual stimuli.</p> <p>This also roughly describes the conditions of Muzafer Sherif’s study that established “informational social influence” — the notion that groups of people will arrive at observational conclusions that map neither to reality nor to any individual’s subjective experience.</p> <p>So it wasn’t too surprising that last night’s meteor shower, which I watched at Charles Lee Tilden Park along with a few dozen other people, felt a bit like a fireworks display after all, full of dramatic Ooohs and Aaahs in reaction to distant moving objects that in reality were perhaps Not That Cool.</p> <p>And when the unspoken boredom settled in we decided it was over, waiting for a particularly impressive meteor we could call a finale before climbing back into our cars and driving home. Mean<span>while the shower carried on, undisturbed, behind us.</span></p>http://nsbarr.com/post/950458930http://nsbarr.com/post/950458930Fri, 13 Aug 2010 20:25:47 -0700meteorbrain<img src="http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_l6uzutSbRW1qze2tro1_500.jpg"/><br/><br/><p>it doesn’t take much</p>http://nsbarr.com/post/924423632http://nsbarr.com/post/924423632Sun, 08 Aug 2010 17:25:14 -0700<img src="http://27.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_l6m2064bbO1qze2tro1_500.jpg"/><br/><br/><p><a href="http://nsbarr.com/photo/1280/673463547/1/tumblr_l3nk0xwxGO1qze2tr">her again</a></p>http://nsbarr.com/post/903549998http://nsbarr.com/post/903549998Wed, 04 Aug 2010 10:00:00 -0700<img src="http://30.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_l6donoDmw41qze2tro1_500.jpg"/><br/><br/><p>Good morning midnight, good night day.</p>http://nsbarr.com/post/880163954http://nsbarr.com/post/880163954Fri, 30 Jul 2010 09:04:12 -0700<embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" src="http://nsbarr.com/swf/audio_player.swf?audio_file=http://www.tumblr.com/audio_file/830337105/tumblr_l5sce4snR41qze2tr&color=FFFFFF" height="27" width="207" quality="best"></embed><br/><br/><p>All the people that you’ve loved, they’re all bound to leave some keepsakes.</p>http://nsbarr.com/post/830337105http://nsbarr.com/post/830337105Sun, 18 Jul 2010 20:30:04 -0700<img src="http://27.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_l5nri0uURt1qze2tro1_500.jpg"/><br/><br/><p>Multi-ball is fun. If I designed a pinball game I’d make it start with at least 2 balls every time.</p>http://nsbarr.com/post/819850772http://nsbarr.com/post/819850772Fri, 16 Jul 2010 09:08:03 -0700<img src="http://30.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_l5kn1cmRt31qze2tro1_500.jpg"/><br/> <br/><img src="http://30.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_l5kn1cmRt31qze2tro2_500.jpg"/><br/> <br/><img src="http://26.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_l5kn1cmRt31qze2tro3_500.jpg"/><br/> <br/><img src="http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_l5kn1cmRt31qze2tro4_500.png"/><br/> <br/><p>I was *this close* to writing an angry post about the lack of reception on my iPhone. I was going to say that cell phone reception — incredibly — is becoming the nightmare that routers were in the ’00s and device drivers were in the ’90s. A quagmire of connectivity issues where everyone can blame each other for the problem and the user is left feeling stupid and frustrated.<br/><br/>I was going to write all that and then I got a letter in the mail from AT&T.<br/><br/>Even before I opened it, it struck me as special. It had a nice stamp and a certain simple elegance you don’t get from a bill or an upgrade offer.<br/><br/>The letter informed me that I was entitled to receive the new AT&T 3G MicroCell for free. It was vague as to why — I’ve never called up to complain. My guess is that they knew my contract was up soon (at least, it was before I bought the new iPhone) and that the Mission is a particularly bad neighborhood for coverage.<br/><br/>The last few hours have been magical. The AT&T guy in downtown SF was really helpful, and replaced my SIM card when I told him about all the trouble I’ve had with reception at my house. He also put my new MicroCell in a really cool bag. <br/><br/>It took about 10 minutes to set up the MicroCell and the instructions were well-written and concise. <br/><br/>I restarted my iPhone and it now has the little M-Cell tag at the top. I just successfully made a phone call from the comfort of my own home, on the couch.<br/><br/>It’s like the future!</p>http://nsbarr.com/post/812765164http://nsbarr.com/post/812765164Wed, 14 Jul 2010 16:39:00 -0700<img src="http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_l5kfi0ejO81qze2tro1_500.jpg"/><br/><br/><p>like an empty new york that doesn’t smell of anything</p>http://nsbarr.com/post/812233437http://nsbarr.com/post/812233437Wed, 14 Jul 2010 13:55:57 -0700<img src="http://26.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_l5f23qq9KB1qze2tro1_500.png"/><br/><br/><p>What was the real probability of Paul the Octopus going 100% at the 2010 World Cup?<br/><br/>Because Paul already gained some level of fame in the 2008 Euro Cup, we can sort of shrink attrition bias (the idea that in a huge pool of predictors, a handful of people are likely to guess right several times in a row). Also attrition bias is hard to quantify and kind of a buzzkill.<br/><br/>If Paul was just guessing at random, then the probability is the same as tossing a fair coin every time. He guessed 8 games, so p = 1/2^8 = <strong>0.39%</strong>.<br/><br/>Let’s say there’s a bias that makes Paul more inclined to pick Germany. If we pick the bias that best fits Paul’s behavior (since he picked Germany 5 of 7 times we’d expect a coin that lands on Germany 71% of the time and we call it a fair coin in the last game, which didn’t involve Germany) then p = .71*.29*.71*.71*.71*.29*.71*.5 = <strong>0.76%</strong>. Still pretty crazy.<br/><br/>On <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_the_Octopus">Wikipedia</a> there’s some discussion around the possibility that the octopus prefers horizontal stripes; if we accept this bias then we can say p=1 when only one team’s flag has horizontal stripes and p=.5 when both teams’ do. In this case p = 1*.5*.5*1*.5*1*1*.5 = <strong>6.25%</strong>. Way higher.<br/><br/>Of course you could refine the bias such that Paul is 100% likely to pick the right flag every time, but that seems only to transfer the improbability, not resolve it. What I mean is, then we have to ask: What is the probability of a World Cup schedule turning out in such a way that our stripe-biased octopus will get it right every time?<br/><br/>If you’re a skeptic and you think the whole thing was rigged, the odds are still pretty low. I’m no bookie but based on made-up semi-informed odds for each game, there was a major upset (the Serbia win) and some virtual toss-ups. I get p = .8*.2*.7*.6*.5*.5*.7*.5 = <strong>0.59</strong><strong>%</strong>, which means that the a true skeptic would cite the stripe bias, not any kind of foul play.</p>http://nsbarr.com/post/799542428http://nsbarr.com/post/799542428Sun, 11 Jul 2010 16:19:00 -0700<img src="http://28.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_l57avx3bHn1qze2tro1_500.png"/><br/><br/><p>Not sure how good <a href="http://games.espn.go.com/bpredictor/en-us/entry?entryID=955803&period=2">my bracket</a> will look after today, but for the most part I killed it.</p>http://nsbarr.com/post/781920969http://nsbarr.com/post/781920969Wed, 07 Jul 2010 11:47:00 -0700<img src="http://27.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_l4vtsezMip1qze2tro1_500.jpg"/><br/><br/><p>Unclear if everyone gets these or if my shoes just looked particularly unsterile.</p>http://nsbarr.com/post/757707502http://nsbarr.com/post/757707502Thu, 01 Jul 2010 07:04:52 -0700<img src="http://28.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_l4vtm0kDhT1qze2tro1_500.jpg"/><br/><br/>http://nsbarr.com/post/757696944http://nsbarr.com/post/757696944Thu, 01 Jul 2010 07:00:58 -0700<img src="http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_l4vtl1gAIy1qze2tro1_500.jpg"/><br/><br/><p>A few nightmarish last images</p>http://nsbarr.com/post/757695216http://nsbarr.com/post/757695216Thu, 01 Jul 2010 07:00:28 -0700<object width="400" height="336"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/4j_QBD6hw2M&rel=0&egm=0&showinfo=0&fs=1"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/4j_QBD6hw2M&rel=0&egm=0&showinfo=0&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="400" height="336" allowFullScreen="true" wmode="transparent"></embed></object><br/><br/>http://nsbarr.com/post/763456447http://nsbarr.com/post/763456447Thu, 01 Jul 2010 06:56:00 -0700<img src="http://29.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_l4v59m8V9v1qze2tro1_250.jpg"/><br/><br/><p>Tomorrow I’m voluntarily getting my eyes lasered so that I can see better.</p> <p>I like my eyes. Probably everyone likes their own eyes — windows to the soul, etc. Lots of people don’t like their appendages and bodily accoutrements, but not to like your eyes is not to like yourself, it seems.</p> <p>Anyway my major apprehension about LASIK was that my eyes would fall out or something, but cursory research suggests that’s not going to happen. Instead, the realistic worst case scenario is that my corneas get fucked up and my vision becomes irreparably terrible.</p> <p>My vision is actually not that bad today. -2.5 in each eye, just weak enough to require correction to work, drive, make meaningful eye contact with girls from across the room, etc.</p> <p>Over the last year or so my eyes started to reject my contact lenses, and lately I can’t go a day without some irritation and eye crud. I don’t like wearing glasses because I don’t like having things on my face. So LASIK seemed like a good option.</p> <p>If I get super introspective maybe there’s something important at stake here. I generally haven’t invested much in my body - I don’t hate it or anything but I’ve always kind of regarded it from a distance and with mistrust. This procedure - definitely an investment - is significant because if it pays off, maybe it will initiate some kind of positive change where I start working out, shopping for clothes that fit me, looking confidently in the mirror, etc. And on the flip-side if it backfires I will probably feel like a broken robot, taking long miserable baths and staring blankly at my limbs as if they don’t belong to me.</p> <p>Wheee!</p>http://nsbarr.com/post/756477492http://nsbarr.com/post/756477492Wed, 30 Jun 2010 22:15:14 -0700