Multi-ball is fun. If I designed a pinball game I’d make it start with at least 2 balls every time.
this is my blog
I was *this close* to writing an angry post about the lack of reception on my iPhone. I was going to say that cell phone reception — incredibly — is becoming the nightmare that routers were in the ’00s and device drivers were in the ’90s. A quagmire of connectivity issues where everyone can blame each other for the problem and the user is left feeling stupid and frustrated.
I was going to write all that and then I got a letter in the mail from AT&T.
Even before I opened it, it struck me as special. It had a nice stamp and a certain simple elegance you don’t get from a bill or an upgrade offer.
The letter informed me that I was entitled to receive the new AT&T 3G MicroCell for free. It was vague as to why — I’ve never called up to complain. My guess is that they knew my contract was up soon (at least, it was before I bought the new iPhone) and that the Mission is a particularly bad neighborhood for coverage.
The last few hours have been magical. The AT&T guy in downtown SF was really helpful, and replaced my SIM card when I told him about all the trouble I’ve had with reception at my house. He also put my new MicroCell in a really cool bag.
It took about 10 minutes to set up the MicroCell and the instructions were well-written and concise.
I restarted my iPhone and it now has the little M-Cell tag at the top. I just successfully made a phone call from the comfort of my own home, on the couch.
It’s like the future!
like an empty new york that doesn’t smell of anything
What was the real probability of Paul the Octopus going 100% at the 2010 World Cup?
Because Paul already gained some level of fame in the 2008 Euro Cup, we can sort of shrink attrition bias (the idea that in a huge pool of predictors, a handful of people are likely to guess right several times in a row). Also attrition bias is hard to quantify and kind of a buzzkill.
If Paul was just guessing at random, then the probability is the same as tossing a fair coin every time. He guessed 8 games, so p = 1/2^8 = 0.39%.
Let’s say there’s a bias that makes Paul more inclined to pick Germany. If we pick the bias that best fits Paul’s behavior (since he picked Germany 5 of 7 times we’d expect a coin that lands on Germany 71% of the time and we call it a fair coin in the last game, which didn’t involve Germany) then p = .71*.29*.71*.71*.71*.29*.71*.5 = 0.76%. Still pretty crazy.
On Wikipedia there’s some discussion around the possibility that the octopus prefers horizontal stripes; if we accept this bias then we can say p=1 when only one team’s flag has horizontal stripes and p=.5 when both teams’ do. In this case p = 1*.5*.5*1*.5*1*1*.5 = 6.25%. Way higher.
Of course you could refine the bias such that Paul is 100% likely to pick the right flag every time, but that seems only to transfer the improbability, not resolve it. What I mean is, then we have to ask: What is the probability of a World Cup schedule turning out in such a way that our stripe-biased octopus will get it right every time?
If you’re a skeptic and you think the whole thing was rigged, the odds are still pretty low. I’m no bookie but based on made-up semi-informed odds for each game, there was a major upset (the Serbia win) and some virtual toss-ups. I get p = .8*.2*.7*.6*.5*.5*.7*.5 = 0.59%, which means that the a true skeptic would cite the stripe bias, not any kind of foul play.
Not sure how good my bracket will look after today, but for the most part I killed it.
Unclear if everyone gets these or if my shoes just looked particularly unsterile.
A few nightmarish last images
Tomorrow I’m voluntarily getting my eyes lasered so that I can see better.
I like my eyes. Probably everyone likes their own eyes — windows to the soul, etc. Lots of people don’t like their appendages and bodily accoutrements, but not to like your eyes is not to like yourself, it seems.
Anyway my major apprehension about LASIK was that my eyes would fall out or something, but cursory research suggests that’s not going to happen. Instead, the realistic worst case scenario is that my corneas get fucked up and my vision becomes irreparably terrible.
My vision is actually not that bad today. -2.5 in each eye, just weak enough to require correction to work, drive, make meaningful eye contact with girls from across the room, etc.
Over the last year or so my eyes started to reject my contact lenses, and lately I can’t go a day without some irritation and eye crud. I don’t like wearing glasses because I don’t like having things on my face. So LASIK seemed like a good option.
If I get super introspective maybe there’s something important at stake here. I generally haven’t invested much in my body - I don’t hate it or anything but I’ve always kind of regarded it from a distance and with mistrust. This procedure - definitely an investment - is significant because if it pays off, maybe it will initiate some kind of positive change where I start working out, shopping for clothes that fit me, looking confidently in the mirror, etc. And on the flip-side if it backfires I will probably feel like a broken robot, taking long miserable baths and staring blankly at my limbs as if they don’t belong to me.
Wheee!
